The World Cup should be a victory for regulated betting, not the illegal market

As president of Flutter and CEO of Flutter International I am responsible for all of Flutter’s global brands. I’ve spent years running betting businesses across many of the world’s largest regulated markets, from Australia to Brazil, the US to the UK and many more in between. One thing I’ve learned – and the evidence is consistent – is that well-regulated markets work better for customer protection, sports integrity, tax revenues and job creation. Poorly regulated or unregulated markets do the opposite.

At Flutter, we operate across many of the world’s leading regulated markets, including soccer powerhouses such as Brazil, Spain and England, alongside two of the 2026 World Cup hosts in the US and Canada. We expect staking on the event across the group to be roughly twice the level of Qatar in 2022, with around 10 million customers betting with our brands globally. That scale drives our focus on player safety. Age verification, anti-money laundering controls, safer gambling protections, sports integrity monitoring – these aren’t boxes we tick, they’re standards we take seriously. AI and machine learning are helping to detect signs of potential harm earlier, including unusual staking behavior or significant changes in deposit patterns. Technology helps, but it doesn’t replace human oversight and a culture of accountability, which remain core to our approach.

Another lesson I’ve learned operating across different regulatory environments is that there’s no single template. Different countries take different approaches, and the strongest operators respect that and operate within those frameworks. We’ve never viewed strong regulation and commercial success as mutually exclusive. That’s worth saying clearly, because it’s often lost in political debate. What’s also lost – and what deserves far more attention – is the scale of the illegal market threat. A risk far greater to consumers than competition between licensed operators is the rapid, largely unchecked growth of offshore illegal betting sites that bypass consumer protections, avoid taxation, offer no meaningful responsible gambling safeguards and, in many cases, have direct links to criminality. They are actively targeting customers in markets where they have no right to operate, often transacting in cryptocurrencies to escape real scrutiny. And the data shows they’re succeeding. For this World Cup, the UN’s Office on Drugs and Crime has warned that illegal wagering could exceed the legal market globally. If analysts are correct, this could be even greater than the $60bn expected to be bet in the legal market – a trajectory that should alarm regulators and governments alike.

The pattern is already visible. In the Netherlands, the illegal market now accounts for more than half of all gambling revenue, driven by tax increases and tighter regulation squeezing licensed operators. In the UK, the Office for Budget Responsibility warned last fall that further tax rises risk pushing more customers towards the illicit market, which some believe could be worth £33bn by 2028 at current growth rates, potentially costing the Treasury £500m in lost revenue by 2029-30. These aren’t isolated cases, but a warning.

Fixing this can’t fall to regulators alone. Technology platforms, advertising networks and payment processors all have a role to play. Illegal operators are already outspending licensed ones on digital advertising in several markets, with research suggesting that could reach £1bn annually by 2028. When unlicensed sites can advertise freely, process payments without friction and reach consumers through the same channels as legitimate businesses, the regulatory framework is only as strong as its weakest link. Closer cooperation between regulators and the platforms controlling digital distribution isn’t optional. It’s essential.

Soccer is so special because it is a level playing field. Eleven on eleven. The same rules apply to all. The greatest players in the world still have to earn their victories within this consistent framework – that’s what makes events like the World Cup so compelling.

In our industry, the illegal market tears up such rulebooks, is playing without a referee, and faces no consequences at the final whistle. Closing that gap requires governments, regulators, technology platforms and licensed operators to line up together. The World Cup is the biggest fixture in sport. It’s time to make sure the regulated market is ready to play.

This article first appeared in EGR Global.